Tim’s Garden, the Battle with the Squirrels and Afghanistan
Whenever our class discussions turn to world politics, we get some lively debates. Afghanistan is one of those. While political assessments look at voter turnout or election results and military assessments look at strategy, casualties or the number of troops, I always ask, “what variables do you think we should look at as disciples of economics?”
The answers vary depending on priorities, but the main variables are unemployment, the labor force participation rate, the level of investment and of course the GDP per person. Obviously in those places where there are few employment alternatives for the labor force and the population is hungry, the job of bomb making or IUD construction are rational employment alternatives. The lack of investment comes from few opportunities for new business and/or a high price for credit (even though charging interest is against the Koran) that naturally results from an area without security. The low GDP per person tells us that there is not much economic activity in a region.
In Afghanistan, the real per person GDP was $700 per person in 2008 which is the same as it was for 2007. The unemployment rate is estimated at 40% (this may be low depending on whether females are included in the estimates). Currently, 53% of the population lives below the poverty line. The statistic of primary interest to me is that 80% of the economy is employed in agriculture. (For all of the statistics in this post, I am using the CIA fact book).
Although there are many economic growth models for developing nations, endogenous growth that results naturally from internal markets has proven over time to provide a better (i.e. less disruptive) foundation for future prosperity. Endogenous markets for many nations have begun from an agricultural base.
My Garden Problem
This leads me to the story of my Garden and the cute little ground squirrels that for the last three years have been ignoring my backyard rule of law and eating my tomatoes. These insurgents have no regard for my morals (or chicken wire fencing). Last year I went after them with traps and over the summer trapped 16 varmints.
This year I decided to employ a new strategy. Instead, I looked at why these squirrels were coming to the garden in the first place. The local garden shop told me it was that these animals wanted water. So I tried putting out a bowl of water. The insurgents liked the décor of the bowl jumped right past in on their way to the tomatoes. Thus, I concluded that it must have been hunger than caused their behavior. So I decided to plant two cherry tomato plants next to where the squirrels tended to habituate. My hope was that they would be happy to have their own harvest and leave my Beefsteak fruit alone. This worked like a charm. In fact everyday, I will find remnants of the daily squirrel feast near the cherry tomato plants; meanwhile, my prize tomatoes remained untouched.
The analogy applies to Afghanistan.
This country has a population where the only crop that the endogenous farmers know will pay well is poppy. The problem with this crop is that although it pays a nice cash export price, it does not generate food internally and thus does not develop agricultural markets internally. By contrast, a grain crop can not only feed people, it can become fodder to raise sheep, goats, chickens and cows. According to the CIA fact book, Afghanistan also grows wheat and nuts as well as raises sheep. From my limited observation of television news footage, it appears corn is grown also. Many years ago Afghanistan used to actually export agricultural produce.
So what is the U.S. doing about assisting agriculture in Afghanistan? Well the Department of Defense has a series of projects organized through Army National Guard in 14 states called, Agri-business Development Teams. Their goal is to help Afghanistan rebuild their former agricultural industry and establish an agricultural infrastructure. Quite frankly it is only because a student (who was a soldier) in one of my Micro classes worked on this project, that I know it exists. This project is a step in the right direction, but here is my suggestions for how to do much more by tapping into an arm of American strength. Namely, use American agricultural bio-technology to make Afghanistan self –sufficient with food.
American Colleges and Universities through out the midwest have been solving agricultural problems for over a century. Kansas State University, Iowa State University, University of Illinois, Purdue, Texas A & M, and the University of Nebraska to name a few have biological engineers that have been testing soil samples, measuring regional rainfalls, examining plant structures and farming conditions for decades. These think tanks have helped discover countless methods for improving American agriculture. Similarly there are many American biotechnology companies that have created genetically modified seeds, fertilizers and herbicides to produce incredible yields for the American farmer. Some of these companies include Monsanto (who makes DeKalb and Asgrow), BASF, Dow AgroSciences (who make Mycogen seeds), DuPont (who makes Pioneer), Syngenta (who makes Northrup King) and Bayer.
What if these universities working in partnership with these companies were employed to produce a handful of crops and procedures that would effectively grow for the small farmer in Afghanistan in the various regions. Yes, much of the land mass is in high altitude and yes the terrain appears to be rocky and dangerous to a plow blade and yes there are security risks for the farmers. But let’s not underestimate the genius of the scientific minds that operate in this sector of the American economy.
Once Afghan farmers find success with new crops and techniques, they will begin to provide greater yields. The greater yields will not only provide food for the population, but promote good will on behalf of the United States and give the country more exports. Of course, this stability threatens the Taliban. Thus, it would be natural to see the Taliban resort to destroying crops or turning against the farmers. But this violent measure is fatal to the Taliban. It requires that they turn against the well-being of their own people. At this point the battle for the hearts of the population will have already been lost by the Taliban.
Perhaps this idea is an oversimplification, but whatever political or military strategy the United States employs in this region, until there is agricultural self-sufficiency, the population will be ripe for whoever offers a full belly.
The answers vary depending on priorities, but the main variables are unemployment, the labor force participation rate, the level of investment and of course the GDP per person. Obviously in those places where there are few employment alternatives for the labor force and the population is hungry, the job of bomb making or IUD construction are rational employment alternatives. The lack of investment comes from few opportunities for new business and/or a high price for credit (even though charging interest is against the Koran) that naturally results from an area without security. The low GDP per person tells us that there is not much economic activity in a region.
In Afghanistan, the real per person GDP was $700 per person in 2008 which is the same as it was for 2007. The unemployment rate is estimated at 40% (this may be low depending on whether females are included in the estimates). Currently, 53% of the population lives below the poverty line. The statistic of primary interest to me is that 80% of the economy is employed in agriculture. (For all of the statistics in this post, I am using the CIA fact book).
Although there are many economic growth models for developing nations, endogenous growth that results naturally from internal markets has proven over time to provide a better (i.e. less disruptive) foundation for future prosperity. Endogenous markets for many nations have begun from an agricultural base.
My Garden Problem
This leads me to the story of my Garden and the cute little ground squirrels that for the last three years have been ignoring my backyard rule of law and eating my tomatoes. These insurgents have no regard for my morals (or chicken wire fencing). Last year I went after them with traps and over the summer trapped 16 varmints.
This year I decided to employ a new strategy. Instead, I looked at why these squirrels were coming to the garden in the first place. The local garden shop told me it was that these animals wanted water. So I tried putting out a bowl of water. The insurgents liked the décor of the bowl jumped right past in on their way to the tomatoes. Thus, I concluded that it must have been hunger than caused their behavior. So I decided to plant two cherry tomato plants next to where the squirrels tended to habituate. My hope was that they would be happy to have their own harvest and leave my Beefsteak fruit alone. This worked like a charm. In fact everyday, I will find remnants of the daily squirrel feast near the cherry tomato plants; meanwhile, my prize tomatoes remained untouched.
The analogy applies to Afghanistan.
This country has a population where the only crop that the endogenous farmers know will pay well is poppy. The problem with this crop is that although it pays a nice cash export price, it does not generate food internally and thus does not develop agricultural markets internally. By contrast, a grain crop can not only feed people, it can become fodder to raise sheep, goats, chickens and cows. According to the CIA fact book, Afghanistan also grows wheat and nuts as well as raises sheep. From my limited observation of television news footage, it appears corn is grown also. Many years ago Afghanistan used to actually export agricultural produce.
So what is the U.S. doing about assisting agriculture in Afghanistan? Well the Department of Defense has a series of projects organized through Army National Guard in 14 states called, Agri-business Development Teams. Their goal is to help Afghanistan rebuild their former agricultural industry and establish an agricultural infrastructure. Quite frankly it is only because a student (who was a soldier) in one of my Micro classes worked on this project, that I know it exists. This project is a step in the right direction, but here is my suggestions for how to do much more by tapping into an arm of American strength. Namely, use American agricultural bio-technology to make Afghanistan self –sufficient with food.
American Colleges and Universities through out the midwest have been solving agricultural problems for over a century. Kansas State University, Iowa State University, University of Illinois, Purdue, Texas A & M, and the University of Nebraska to name a few have biological engineers that have been testing soil samples, measuring regional rainfalls, examining plant structures and farming conditions for decades. These think tanks have helped discover countless methods for improving American agriculture. Similarly there are many American biotechnology companies that have created genetically modified seeds, fertilizers and herbicides to produce incredible yields for the American farmer. Some of these companies include Monsanto (who makes DeKalb and Asgrow), BASF, Dow AgroSciences (who make Mycogen seeds), DuPont (who makes Pioneer), Syngenta (who makes Northrup King) and Bayer.
What if these universities working in partnership with these companies were employed to produce a handful of crops and procedures that would effectively grow for the small farmer in Afghanistan in the various regions. Yes, much of the land mass is in high altitude and yes the terrain appears to be rocky and dangerous to a plow blade and yes there are security risks for the farmers. But let’s not underestimate the genius of the scientific minds that operate in this sector of the American economy.
Once Afghan farmers find success with new crops and techniques, they will begin to provide greater yields. The greater yields will not only provide food for the population, but promote good will on behalf of the United States and give the country more exports. Of course, this stability threatens the Taliban. Thus, it would be natural to see the Taliban resort to destroying crops or turning against the farmers. But this violent measure is fatal to the Taliban. It requires that they turn against the well-being of their own people. At this point the battle for the hearts of the population will have already been lost by the Taliban.
Perhaps this idea is an oversimplification, but whatever political or military strategy the United States employs in this region, until there is agricultural self-sufficiency, the population will be ripe for whoever offers a full belly.
Comments