The Hamilton Plan for the Kansas City Chiefs


How to Maximize the Value of the Current Roster and Recreate a Winner in 2013

This plan is constructed by Professor Timmy Hamilton who is an Economics Professor at Columbia College and Avila University.  He is a die hard Chiefs fan who watches every minute of every game and has a balding scalp to prove it.  

Assumptions: 
  1. The teams in the NFL draft function in an Oligopoly Market and Game Theory can help establish Nash Equilibrium.
  2. The Cheifs currently have the #1, #34, #63, #96, # 127, # 160, and #191 picks. 
  3. The NFL Draft Value Chart  below provides data on player value.  Since this comes from the New England Patriots draft website and because Bill Belichick has a Masters in Economics, this is assumed to be built off of Historic Data and the values are a product of multiple regression analysis.  It shows multiple functions and is linear in some rounds, a parabala in others and a set of logorithmic equations in other rounds.



  
  1. From a review of the history of draft trades, the #1 Overall pick has the value of either
    1.  2nd and 4th and 5th round pick from a team selecting in the top 12 slots, or
    2. 3rd and 4th and 5th and 6th round pick from a team selecting in the top 12 slots, or
    3. 2nd and 3rd and 5th round pick from a team selecting in the 13 through 19th slots.
    4. 2nd  and 3rd  and  4th  and 6th  round pick from a team selecting in the 20 through 31 slots.
  2. If trading for a player already in the league, that player needs to be put in terms of value as a draft pick to balance the equations. 
  3. When trading away a player, that player needs to be put in terms of value as a draft pick also.
  4. The Cheifs top needs (in order) are:
    1. QB
    2. WR
    3. DT
    4. LT
    5. CB
    6. DE
    7. OT
    8. ILB
    9. DT
    10. WR
    11. RB
    12. S
These are based on personal observations of the teams games this last year.


Personal Observations of Potential Draft Picks:
These observations are made with the disclaimer that I am just a fan, not a scout.

QB comparisons:  Gino Smith is not significantly better than Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib.  He is the best bagel in a box of day old bagels.

Offensive Line comparisons: Luke Joeckel IS significantly better (i.e. 16 picks or a half a round) than Chance Warmack, Eric Fisher, Jon Cooper or Barrett Jones (Lane Johnson is a bit over rated).

Linebacker comparisons:  Jarvis Jones IS significantly better (i.e. 16 picks or a half a round)  than Barkevious Mingo or Damontre Moore.

Dee Milliner IS significantly better  (i.e. 16 picks or a half a round) than the other defensive backs in the draft.

Player who would most help the Chiefs who will be available after 16 rounds:  Keenan Allen from Cal.  In addition to size, he has competitive speed to get separation.  Injury should drop his draft stock and make him available.


Recommended Signing/Roster Moves :
  1. Sign Dustin Colquitt.  He is the best player in the league at his position (punter) and for the field position he consistently generates his is incredibly cheap. Vikings punter Chris Kluwe leads all punters at $5 million a year.   Colquitt is worth that, but less money and a longer contract should be offered. 
  2. Sign Matt Cassell to an extension.  This makes him more tradable and increases his trade value.  Also a servicable back up.
  3. Sign Brady Quinn to an extension.  This makes him more tradable and increases his trade value.
  4. Offer Brandon Albert $8 million per year if his back is healthy.  If he declines let him go. The highest paid LTs are the Rams' Orlando Pace, at $18 million, and the Seahawks' Walter Jones, at $17.7 million although highest base salary is Jake Long at $11.3 million.  Donald Stephenson makes this move easier.   Basically, Albert should have already been signed and his leaving is a consequence of poor planning.
  5. Offer Duane Bowe$8.5 million.   If he declines, let him go.  To franchise him will commit 10.1 million (my calculations based on what the new top 5 player average will be).  He is not $4 million better than Larry Fitzgerald or Roddy White who are getting $5 mil and 5.5 mil respectively. 
  6. Offer Tyson Jackson $3.4 mil.    He will decline.  When he does, let him go.  Terrell Suggs is getting $4.9 mil and even with injury was more productive.
  7. Offer Glen Dorsey $3.8 mil.  He will decline.  When he does, let him go.
  8. Release Ricky Stanzi.
  9. Convert Jonathan Baldwin to Tight End.  If he will not make that move (i.e. put on weight and learn to block), trade him.

Possible/Recommended Trade Moves:

   Plan A
  1. Offer Matt Cassel and the #1 pick to Seattle Seahawks for Matt Flynn and Seatles 1st and 3rd round picks.  If Seahawks decline, offer Matt Cassel and 3rd round pick for Colt McCoy and Browns 3rd round pick; if this fails move to Plan B.
  2. Offer Brady Quinn to Saints along with Cheifs 4th round pick for Chase Daniel and Saints’ 5th round pick.
  3. Offer Johnathan Baldwin and Dexter McCluster  for the highest two trade picks that a buyer will pay.

Plan B
  1. Offer SaintLouis the #1 pick for their #16 pick along with their #78 (3rd round) #111 (4th round) picks.  Use the #16 pick to select Keenan Allen from Cal and #34 pick to select Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib.
  2. Offer Matt Cassel and the #78 pick to the San Francisco 49ers for Alex Smith and the #74 pick.  If done before March 12, 2013, it would save the 49ers a $1million signing bonus due.   If they decline keep Cassel as a back up.
  3. Offer Brady Quinn to any team that will fork over a 4th, 5th , or 6th round pick.
  4. Offer Johnathan Baldwin and Dexter McCluster  for the highest two trade picks that a buyer will pay.

Plan C 
  1. Trade the #1 Overall pick according to the highest placed team who will trade.
    1.  2nd and 4th and 5th round pick from a team selecting in the top 12 slots, or
    2. 3rd and 4th and 5th and 6th round pick from a team selecting in the top 12 slots, or
    3. 2nd and 3rd and 5th round pick from a team selecting in the 13 through 19th slots.
    4. 2nd  and 3rd  and  4th  and 6th  round pick from a team selecting in the 20 through 31 slots.
  1. Offer Johnathan Baldwin and Dexter McCluster  for the highest two trade picks that a buyer will pay.
  2. Draft the Jesus out of Defensive Lineman.  Even though the Chiefs have been woefull at this, this draft is the pool of Defensive Big Boys.   Load up and Feast.  With enough picks even the Chiefs cannot mess this up.


Seattle has the #25 overall pick
Rams have the #16 and #22 (from the Redskins trade last year) overall picks.
49ers will draft at #29-32 depending on playoffs

*Historic Trades that illustrates plausible trades.
In 1999, the New Orleans Saints sent eight draft picks to Washington in order to move up to the fifth overall pick and take the Ricky Williams from Texas.

The Rams gave up their 2nd round and 5th round picks to get Marshall Faulk who at the time was a stud Faulk was the equivalent of a 1st round pick and since the Colts picked 4th with Edgerrin James, arguably Faulk had the value of the #4 overall pick.

Chiefs gave 1st and 3rd round for Joe Montana to 49ers in 1993.  Montana was at the end of his prime but still the equivalent of a top three 1st round pick..

In 1985, New England traded their 1st and 3rd round picks to the 49ers for SF’s 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks.  The 49ers moved up to the 10th overall pick (to get Jerry Rice from Mississippi State).

Recently Aquib Talib (i.e. starting Cornerback) went to the NE Pats for a 4th round pick.

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